A year out from the next municipal election, Mayor Olivia Chow is in trouble with a majority of voters saying it’s time for her to go. A new poll of more than 800 residents — commissioned by ABC Toronto and carried out by Hamish Marshall of One Persuasion — shows even a third of those who voted for Chow want her to be replaced next October.
When asked if Toronto is on the right track or wrong track, just 28% of voters across the city say the city is on the right track. By comparison, 55% say the city is on the wrong track and 17% did not know.
What will be worrisome for Chow’s team is that a majority in every part of the city — Etobicoke, the area north of Eglinton Ave., Scarborough and the urban core — said that the city is on the wrong track. A majority of men across all age brackets, including 65% of men over 55, believe that the city is on the wrong track while among women, a majority of those over 34 believe the city is on the wrong track.
Chow’s strongest showing on this question is among women aged 18-34, where 44% said they believed the city is on the right track.
Time for a new mayor in Toronto
Asked specifically about whether Chow should be re-elected, a majority across all regions of the city and all age brackets said it’s time for a new mayor. That includes 44% who say Chow has done a bad job and that it’s time for a new mayor, and 25% who say she has done a good job but should be replaced.
Just 26% of voters said that Chow had done a good job and should be re-elected.
It’s understandable that the vast majority of those who voted for runner-up Ana Bailo in the last election think it’s time for a new mayor. A warning sign for Chow is that 33% of those who say they voted for her in the 2023 byelection think it’s time for a new mayor.
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The poll tested Chow against potential candidates Brad Bradford and John Tory in a three-way race and separately in head-to-head match ups.
Tory leads with 36% in a three-way race, followed by Chow at 33% and Bradford at 29%. When only those who say they are “absolutely certain to vote” are counted, Tory drops to 33%, Chow stays flat at 33% while Bradford rises to 32%, with just 1% saying they would choose another candidate.
Tory has his strongest support at 45% north of Eglinton. Bradford’s support is highest at 54% in Etobicoke. Chow’s power base is highest at 38% in the urban core.
Chow sure to lose to Tory or Bradford in solo campaign
While a three-way race would be tight for all the candidates, this poll shows Chow losing if she faces either Tory or Bradford in a head-to-head race.
Tory would take 44% of the vote in a solo match-up with Chow while she would take 31%. Bradford would take 40% of the vote, compared to 32% for Chow.
Bradford has already declared that he is running to be mayor, launching his campaign earlier this month. His message is about generational change, making Toronto work again and fixing core services.
Tory has yet to declare but hasn’t squashed speculation that he will run or that a campaign team is assembling. That said, some former supporters have moved to Bradford and Tory has been seeking an appointment such as becoming Canada’s consul general in Los Angeles, a position that he is suited for and that opens up next month.
Chow is clearly running again and will clearly have the backing of the local NDP and activist group Progress Toronto.
ABC Toronto is a group that was founded earlier this year to counter the impact of Progress Toronto and help elect more centrist candidates to City Hall — people who would align with the Liberals or Conservatives at the federal or provincial government level.
One Persuasion polled 805 residents of the City of Toronto using a national online panel between Oct. 6-8. The margin of error is 3.5%, 19 times out of 20.
