How scary is 'The Scariest Chart in the World,' really?

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A version of the above chart has made the rounds on social media in recent days, often labeled the "Scariest Chart in the World." It shows that while the S&P 500 has been on a largely uninterrupted surge to repeated record highs, US job openings are down about 30%. (h/t Derek Thompson's Substack.)

A possible explanation is one that people skeptical of the AI revolution probably won't want to hear: AI has unlocked productivity and efficiency gains across industries, which has boosted expected corporate earnings, the main driver of stocks — but that's come at the expense of employable humans.

Thompson pushes back on this narrative and says Fed monetary policy, global trade tensions, and immigration policies have also played large roles in a shrinking labor market. While the chart above is indeed scary, the reason for the two diverging lines goes well beyond a one-size-fits-all answer that blames AI.